A breakdown of Paddy Pimblett vs Justin Gaethje

UFC 234 is headlined by the interim lightweight title bout between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett. Gaethje is no stranger to title fights and has been a staple in the lightweight division for almost a decade. He has touched interim gold before, yet has failed on every opportunity to win undisputed. With Ilia Topuria and Arman Tsarukyan out of the mix, Gaethje has found himself one last shot at winning gold, in what seems a very winnable fight against English up-and-comer Paddy Pimblett. Paddy “the baddy” Pimblett is in a completely different circumstance. Loved (and sometimes hated) for his brash personality, Pimblett has made numerous technical improvements since entering the UFC that have allowed him to work his way into a title fight, despite what doubters may have said about his early performances. Ultimately, it is an interesting matchup between two very wild fighters, which is likely to go down as a banger.

Every fight starts on the feet, which many fans have decided is Gaethje’s domain, with onlookers seeing Pimblett’s performances against lesser strikers such as Luigi Vendramini and Jared Gordon as evidence that Gaethje is going to dog walk him in this area. However, Pimblett’s game has changed noticeably since those fights. Pimblett has always been able to use his range well, but his urge to brawl frequently came out the second he saw an opportunity to land heavy. This led to him getting clipped a lot in exchanges where he had thrown himself off balance, leading to many concluding that he is “just not that good”. Now a bit older and more experienced, Pimblett is able to lean into that range a bit more, utilising his jab and wicked left leg to harass opponents from range. His ability to chamber plays a part in his kicking’s effectiveness, raising his knee in a way that hides which type of kick he is going to do, mixing up teeps, body kicks and inside low kicks effectively to chip away at an opponent. This is a technique regularly seen in taekwondo, and it is extremely frustrating to deal with as it hides the path of the kick very well. Pimblett uses this along with his stiff jab effectively with his long frame for lightweight, making him a problem for anyone who wants to close that gap to meaningfully put hands on him.

Justin Gaethje’s goal is to do just that. While he is known for his excellent low kicks, his main objective is to get into boxing range and hit you as hard as he can. The main problem with that is making it into boxing range in the first place. Earlier in his career he would simply put up a high guard and wait for his opponent to hit him, vision problems forcing him to wait for an opponent to touch his guard before he would swing back with a shot of his own, essentially using his own head like a piece of cheese in a mousetrap, begging for the opponent to plant their feet and swing at him so he can use the opportunity to throw back. Once he realised this was not conducive to long-term brain health, he began incorporating a lot more head movement into his game, ducking low and swinging counters. If he misses these counters, however, he ends up widely off balance, all the force of the punch pulling his head over his knees. To remedy this, Gaethje will just catch himself on his other foot and swing off the other foot, also as hard as he can. This has led to some cartoonishly hilarious instances of Gaethje falling over himself against fighters with good evasive footwork, such as Max Holloway practically having Gaethje running headfirst into the fence. Occasionally, footwork isn’t even necessary, and Gaethje will just fall over himself on his own. These wild attempts to catch his opponent will be difficult against Pimblett’s range, with them being even more likely if Paddy can frustrate Gaethje with some kicks from distance, the left body kick being something that Justin struggled with repeatedly against Rafael Fiziev. The question is if Pimblett has the evasive footwork and head movement to capitalise off of this, as for every high level striker who can make Justin Gaethje miss there are ten who have been laid out cold by the bombs he throws. Gaethje’s constant ducking may also lead him into a knockout someday, as he has come close to some brutal flying knees as he dips his head against Fiziev, with Paddy rocking Chandler with one in his last fight making it certainly in the realm of possibility.

When it comes to the grappling in this fight, many have narrowed it down to two outcomes. Either Gaethje can use his high-level wrestling credentials to keep Pimblett off of him, or he gets taken down and immediately submitted. Much like Paddy Pimblett having his striking questioned, many think Gaethje is practically allergic to grappling, with former championship challenger Nate Diaz tweeting “white belt” after Justin’s title fight with Khabib. Gaethje has a terrible tendency to get his back taken and Pimblett is one of the best back takers in the sport right now. Part of this is his ability to insert the far side hook. The second Pimblett sees a glimmer of back he will throw his leg around the opposite side of his opponent’s body and use it as an anchor to drag himself into a solid control position, as opposed to trying to throw in the near side hook and falling off the front without any connection to the opponent’s hips. 

Pimblett’s wrestling has come on in leaps and bounds since his days in Cage Warriors. Pimblett used to simply dive on a leg with whatever posture and then scramble his hardest until his opponent went down, his Kazushi Sakuraba shorts paying homage to his style. This worked for a while, but would land him in some awful positions that he would spend tremendous amounts of energy trying to fight out of, especially as his athleticism would diminish the more the fight progressed. Once in the ufc Pimblett made a clear improvement to his takedowns, prioritising good positioning and finishes. This led to him taking down NCAA Division One All-American Michael Chandler, an impressive feat for any grappler. His ability to time a good shot is still a bit iffy, with him sometimes panicking and shooting with bad position, but he ultimately has a better chance at taking down Gaethje than many give him credit for. 

Gaethje’s takedown defence is still no laughing matter, his All-American wrestling credentials still holding up. His utilisation of leg passes or “funk rolls” makes taking him down an awkward endeavour, disrupting his opponent’s base and allowing him to build height to prevent himself from getting taken down. Gaethje’s chink in the armour is one of his greatest strengths in striking, that being his leg kicks. Khabib Nurmagomedov struggled to take Gaethje down until he focused on trying to catch him off balance when he was throwing the leg kicks. Even other strikers like Fiziev have been able to time his leg kicks, bundling him over when his hips are square. Paddy’s tall stance might not be able to capitalise off of it but it certainly is an option to get Gaethje on the floor or at the very least neuter his striking by removing one of his best tools on the feet. 

There are a lot of unanswered questions heading into this bout. How will Pimblett’s striking fare against the top level of opposition? Will Gaethje’s grappling have improved enough to hold up against a high level jiu jitsu black belt? No matter how it goes down, this bout between two exciting finishers is sure to be an exciting watch, building up a new contender for Ilia Topuria to face.